Monday, March 24, 2014

India Elections 2014 Projection

Updates to 2014 Poll Projection.  Think of this as an amalgamation of multiple models. Hope is that if you combine multiple surveys, the margin of error will be reduced.
I used NDTV's polls as the basis and then assigned probabilities to multiple scenarios where Congress and BJP have different combinations of gains/losses and then combined the models.

BJP: 203
Congress: 79
Others: 261