Wednesday, January 29, 2014

Vote share analysis of Delhi Elections

Took me a few minutes to download data on vote shares at the constituency level for the Delhi elections and run a few correlation models. I split the data into three groups based on which of the major parties won; then, I looked at the relationships between vote shares across parties.


My theory that AAP steals from Congress,  when it wins, seems to have some merit.


Constituencies where AAP won

1) vote share of congress has negative effect on AAP share

2) vote share of BJP has no effect on AAP share


Interpretation: AAP stole from Congress, but not from BJP


Constituencies where BJP won

1) no relationship between vote shares


Interpretation: intriguing result, cannot say anything here


Constituencies where Congress won

1) AAP vote share has positive effect on Congress

2) BJP vote share has positive effect on Congress


Interpretation : parties did not steal from each other, they just drew from their own bases and all seemed to compete and do well in getting their voters out to the booths. 


Across all constituencies:

1) BJP negative on AAP

2) AAP and Congress are negative on BJP

3) BJP negative on Congress, AAP positive on Congress.