Tuesday, September 17, 2013

2014 Indian Lok Sabha Elections Forecast

Check out a state-wise forecast model that I created for Congress/BJP seats for 2014 using 2009 election results. (inspired by Nate Silver's work; not as sophisticated as his models though). No passions involved, more interest in the electoral process than the results per se :)


There are six scenarios with various probabilities and then an aggregate scenario that assigns probabilities to each of the six scenarios. I plan to eventually build up a model with probabilities assigned at the state-level (takes more time). The sheet is self-explanatory and you are free to download and play around with it. Comments are welcome!

My current prediction: Congress 114, BJP 178, Others 252. This is fluid and i will update the models as time progresses.

Most optimistic scenario for BJP 249, Congress 69.
Most optimistic scenario for Congress 136, BJP 146.


Girish Mallapragada said...

Updated Forecast Based on Karnataka State Elections:

Congress: 109
BJP: 161
Others: 272

Mama Jathan said...

Will you be updating these forecasts to include AAP (Either in the others column or a column of their own). While I am not as optimistic as the AAP supporters, I do think their introduction will skew BJP/Congress and major players in the Others column

Girish Mallapragada said...

Updated Forecast from the probabilistic model:

Congress: 82
BJP : 195
Others: 265


Girish Mallapragada said...

I have revised my estimates after including a subjective model that gets the biggest weight. So, in a way I accounted for the AAP effect.