Tuesday, September 17, 2013

2014 Indian Lok Sabha Elections Forecast

Check out a state-wise forecast model that I created for Congress/BJP seats for 2014 using 2009 election results. (inspired by Nate Silver's work; not as sophisticated as his models though). No passions involved, more interest in the electoral process than the results per se :)

https://www.dropbox.com/s/n70nrecmxn710hq/State%20WISE%20PREDICTIONS%202014.xlsx

There are six scenarios with various probabilities and then an aggregate scenario that assigns probabilities to each of the six scenarios. I plan to eventually build up a model with probabilities assigned at the state-level (takes more time). The sheet is self-explanatory and you are free to download and play around with it. Comments are welcome!

My current prediction: Congress 114, BJP 178, Others 252. This is fluid and i will update the models as time progresses.

Most optimistic scenario for BJP 249, Congress 69.
Most optimistic scenario for Congress 136, BJP 146.



4 comments:

Girish Mallapragada said...

Updated Forecast Based on Karnataka State Elections:

Congress: 109
BJP: 161
Others: 272

Mama Jathan said...

Will you be updating these forecasts to include AAP (Either in the others column or a column of their own). While I am not as optimistic as the AAP supporters, I do think their introduction will skew BJP/Congress and major players in the Others column

Girish Mallapragada said...

Updated Forecast from the probabilistic model:

Congress: 82
BJP : 195
Others: 265

https://www.dropbox.com/s/n70nrecmxn710hq/State%20WISE%20PREDICTIONS%202014.xlsx

Girish Mallapragada said...

I have revised my estimates after including a subjective model that gets the biggest weight. So, in a way I accounted for the AAP effect.