Thursday, July 12, 2007

Iraq war - Apocalypse Watch

I am not very sure of what the administrations' intentions were when they started the Iraq war.  Maybe they were thinking of the domino effect - that democracy will get a kickstart and eventually diffuse in the middle east.  Thye may have thought that once Iraq establishes its own institutions, it will stand as a role-model for the rest of the region.  Valid idea - in theory.  In practice, the reality is more complicated.  The middle-east has been plagued by tensions, foreign intervention and corporate greed for years now.  Even if US succeeds in Iraq, will it be able to pull off similar success in other countries that turn renegade?  And, I have not even got to frica yet!

The problem is that now the US faces an increasingly antagonist domestic scene and the future of democracy in Iraq seems bleak without a US presence.  As many writers have written earlier, the Arabs are nomadic and democracy faces an uphill battle in the arabian region.  The house of Saud still rules one of the largest countries in the region - a country that is US' friend, solely for US strategic interests.  Ideology has to be consistent - if the west feels democracy is needed in Iraq, it should accept that the Saudis need democracy too!  What about rights of the saudis?  Ah well, they are friends, we look after them, so even if they are not democracy loving, it is fine as long as they keep pumping crude.

It is just the beginning of apocalypse.  The trouble in middle-east, the Iraq war - throw in nuclear Iran, Syria...they are all the perfect recipe for a conflict that will never end.  I wish I could have been more optimistic.

No comments: